Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

Abstract Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing longer more intense summer droughts even extend out of season. In connection this, frequency forest fire occurrence intensity will likely increase. present study, changes future danger conditions assessed for different regions Greece using Canadian weather index (FWI). Gridded climate output as estimated from three regional models Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment utilized. We use representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting an optimistic emissions scenario where peak decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road (RCP4.5) pessimistic scenario, terms mitigation continue rise throughout century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical FWI threshold values Greece, change days with were calculated areas domains. The results show is progressively increase especially high-end southern eastern up 40 additional high relative late 20th century, average. Crete, Aegean Islands, Attica region, well parts Peloponnese predicted experience stronger danger.